Apple

We don't normally speculate much about Apple rumors here, but this one is simply too grand, too cool and too exciting to pass up.

Over at his [personal weblog](http://blog.screencastsonline.com/scoblog), [ScreenCasts Online](http://screencastsonline.com/) creator Don McAllister asks an interesting question: Why didn't Apple make *any* Mac-related announcements at MWSF? Yeah, the tv works *with* a Mac, but that's hardly the same thing as an announcement of an update to iLife or iWork, or a preview of additional features of Leopard, or other such goodies.

Some have suggested that the iPhone was simply too important a message to dillute with other announcements – and I suspect that that is probably true – but Don's take on the issue is far, far more exciting.

Consider the following pieces of evidence:

1. Apple has evidently discontinued the iSight video camera, which is no longer available at the online store or in Apple retail stores. This has led many to speculate that Apple is soon going to announce a new line of improved Cinema Displays including builit-in iSight cameras.

2. Apple's top-of-2007 website hype promised that this will be the year that everything changes. The line was, "The first 30 years were just the beginning. Welcome to 2007." That kind of hype could easily mean more than just a phone.

3. The iPhone includes a touch-based interface, which, in the Keynote and all marketing materials, is being refered to as "Multi-Touch ™."

4. More than a year ago, researchers at NYU released a video demonstration of a [technology](http://cs.nyu.edu/~jhan/ftirtouch/) they called "Multi-Touch Interaction" which allows for fingertip control of a computer's UI in a fluid and realistic way (click that link to watch the really cool video).

5. Following Jobs's Keynote Address at MWSF, the NYU site was changed to include the line, "Update: Yes, we saw the keynote too! We have some very, very exciting updates coming soon- stay tuned!"

Hmmm.

As I said, I think that McAllister's prediction is unlikely. But I also think it's the coolest, most exciting prediction I've seen in a long time and, like with most predictions of complex, almost-fantasy technology, if anyone could do it, Apple could.

McAllister [says](http://blog.screencastsonline.com/scoblog/?p=176):

>OK, so here is my prediction!

>Leopard will include support for the multi touch gesture technology as demonstrated in the iPhone and be launched simultaneously with a completely revamped range of Desktop Macs and touchscreen Cinema Displays.

*That* would certainly redraw the landscape of personal computing. Consider for a minute: OS X has included support for tablet-based input for a long time now, thanks to [Inkwell](http://www.apple.com/macosx/features/inkwell/). Over on the Windows side, pundits have been trying for years to get users to believe that they should buy tablet PCs, but so far, most consumers are not convinced.

The problem with Tablet PCs is that, while they offer a different kind of input, they don't really offer a different kind of interface. That is to say, they begin with the tool (the pen), not with the interface. The designers never asked when pen-based input would be most appropriate... they just found a way to make it work everywhere, for better or for worse.

With the iPhone, Apple has created an entire device OS that you can operate with your fingertip. It's perfect and seamless and complete. Such a thing isn't appropriate for a computer, right? Well... what about full-screen photo editing in iPhoto, which is done entirely with pointing, clicking and sliders? What about editing in iMovie and Garageband, which is all about scrubbing timelines and re-arranging clips?

What if, when appropriate, Leopard changes to a full-screen, fingertip-based GUI (if you want), allowing you to "touch" your digital content the same way iPhone lets you touch your music?

I dunno... sounds cool. What do you think?

In a whiny piece originally published in Computerworld, Mike Elgan writes on [Macworld's website](http://www.macworld.com/news/2007/01/18/blewit/index.php?lsrc=mwrss):>Steve Jobs’ blockbuster keynote at last week’s Macworld was brilliantly and powerfully delivered — one of his best ever. It was also a colossal mistake.Basically, Elgan feels that, for several reasons, Apple should not have pre-released the iPhone at MWSF, instead waiting until June when the unit actually ships. He goes on to quote Current Analysis's Avi Greengart (a friend of ours here at MacMove), who predicted a "backlash of sorts as people figure out how much this thing [the iPhone] doesn’t do."Elgan and Greengart are, of course, right. The five reasons Elgan gives for thinking that MWSF was too early to demo the new phone are all on-target and make sense. However, when he gets to the important part, attempting to understand *why* Apple and Jobs might have decided to unveil the iPhone last week instead of waiting, he overlooks the obvious reason.Elgan says:>It’s possible Apple announced iPhone so Apple wouldn’t follow the LG KE850 [a similar looking phone] to the market and look like a copycat.>Maybe Jobs wanted to divert attention away from the backdating scandal. Maybe Jobs decided that Apple TV was too weak of a product to carry a keynote. Maybe the motive was good old-fashioned FUD.Umm... what about the other reason? You know, the one that Jobs *actually explained during the Keynote?*According to the [Engadget transcript](http://www.engadget.com/2007/01/09/live-from-macworld-2007-steve-jobs-keynote/) of the Keynote, Jobs said:>When's it going to be available? We're shipping them in June -- we're announcing it today because we have to go get FCC approval... we thought it'd be better to introduce this today rather than let the FCC introduce this.Everyone who builds phones has to let the FCC examine them in a process similar to a patent application. Once the FCC has the phone in its hands, the design becomes public; that's how sites like Engadget get information about upcoming phone releases before they're announced.So, since the iCat would have been let out of the iBag by the FCC soon anyway, Jobs and Apple decided to take the stage at MWSF and announce it themselves, upstaging CES, Microsoft's agonizing Vista launch and most non-technology news in the process.Lessee: keep the phone a secret and let it leak when the FCC gets it, or take the stage in front of the largest pro-Apple audience of the year and, just when everyone is expecting something cool, give them exactly what they want. Hmm... which should Jobs and Apple have chosen?Elgan concludes his piece:>Whatever the reason, I think Apple’s CEO made a big mistake. A June unveiling that coincided with the actual product launch would have... been the traditional Apple home run.Yes, it would have. Of course, in this place we call the Real World™, responsible adults recognize that, sometimes, you can't hit the ball out of the park, so they settle for a stand-up double that puts two runners in scoring position. For the next six months, every one of Apple's competitors will be reacting to the iPhone and the tv, while Microsoft is busy gloating about Vista, The OS That Almost Catches Up To Tiger™.Then, in June, when Apple announces that they've sold a bazillion tvs and pre-sold every iPhone they can make, they will announce the immediate shipment of Leopard, once again catching Microsoft flat-footed and distracted.Could things have worked out better for the iPhone announcement? Maybe (although, really, probably not, considering FCC policy). Given the real-world situation, Apple made the best of the opportunity MWSF presented and is poised to have (another) great year, with innovative products and excited users.Here's hoping that Computerworld, Macworld and Mike Elgan will see the whole picture.

[This](http://www.macminute.com/2007/01/18/iphone-profit/) is really, really, *really* dumb.

MacMinute is reporting that:

>According to a preliminary functional Bill of Materials (BoM) estimate created by iSuppli Corp., each Apple iPhone sold will generate nearly a [50 percent gross margin](http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=104&STORY=/www/story/01-18-2007/0004508382&EDATE=) for Apple Inc. and partner Cingular Wireless, giving the companies a hefty profit, as well as plenty of room for future price cuts.

I can't even list all of the reasons why this is stoopid. But how is this for starters: Uh, Mr. iSuppli? Do you think that the plans for the iPhone fell into Cupertino directly from heaven? Or, perhaps, might it be a little more likely that Apple might have incurred some R&D costs while designing the most advanced and easiest-to-use cell phone interface on the planet?

Ugh. Just reading that press release made me dumber.

**Update**: Nice to see that Gruber agrees with me in [calling BS](http://daringfireball.net/linked/2007/january#fri-19-bullshit_margins) on this "estimate."

Here's an interesting bit of conjecture.

A while back, when Steve Jobs demoed Time Machine at the WWDC, I [wrote about](http://www.macmove.com/mm/archives/apple/thoughts-on-time-machine) how neat it would be if Apple included an external hard drive with all computers running Leopard so that backups would have a place to be written to.

Here's what I wrote:

>What if, when you buy a Mac, there’s a small, Apple-designed hard disk in the box, maybe something like an iPod, but without the screen and scroll-wheel? A quick search tells me that I can buy an external 250 GB hard drive for about US $100. Buying at volume, Apple can certainly afford to include one with a new computer purchase.

>Now, take it one step further: every current Mac has both Firewire and USB 2.0 ports. What if the boxed version of Leopard includes this hard disk as well? What if Apple were to sell Leopard along with a drive so that, out-of-the-box, every Mac user got everything they needed to never lose any data ever again?

>And, as long as we’re dreaming, what if Apple included this bus-powered drive and cable with every Mac or Leopard box without raising the price?

Well, over at [The Apple Blog](http://theappleblog.com), BJ Clark is [thinking](http://theappleblog.com/2007/01/10/pubnew-airport-extreme-features-leopard-ready/) along the same lines, with some up-to-date information regarding the new [Instant Drive Sharing](http://www.apple.com/airportextreme/sharing.html) capabilities built in to the upgraded AirPort Extreme:

>...backing up is a great idea, but it’s a bit pointless to back something up to the same drive or the same computer. Are you catching on here? Hook up a drive to the AirPort, and instant back up source. Pretty slick if you ask me.

That makes sense to me... a lot of sense.